Toubkal summit window calculator
Toubkal summit success is not constant year-round. In July, 85% of guided groups reach the top. In February with full winter gear, 50%. In February without crampons, near zero. This tool estimates success by month.
The tool
What this solves
Toubkal summit success is a function of month, gear, and sleep choice. Most guidebooks give a single percentage and miss the gear effect. This tool estimates success for each combination.
How to read the result
This is guided-group success, not solo.
Gear modifies +0 (no winter kit), +15 (crampons + ice axe), +25 (full winter kit + guide).
Sleep option: refuge is the standard; camping requires warmer kit; day from Imlil is a -40 penalty.
Limitations
Toubkal success rates are based on operator-published averages 2020-2025. They assume a typical guided group of 4-6 people. Real conditions vary year to year -- a 2024 snow-heavy winter dropped February success to 30% without crampons.
FAQ
What is the best month?
May-June and September. Warm enough to be safe, snow-free for the final slope.
Can I do it in winter?
Yes, but only with full winter kit + an experienced winter guide. February is the most beautiful but the riskiest.
Do I need crampons?
Above 3000m with hard snow (Nov-Apr), yes. Without them, summit is unsafe.
Sources
- Toubkal operator success-rate survey 2020-2024
- Royal Moroccan Federation of Mountain Climbing (FRMSM) seasonal report 2024
- Personal high-altitude Atlas summit logs 2024-2025